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Exit polls in Ukraine suggest the Party of the Region's candidate Viktor Yanukovytch has won the second round of that country's presidential election, by between three and six per cent.

Yanukovytch is generally seen as a pro-Russian figure (though to want extent his is real or tactical - the core of his vote is Russian speaking - is yet to be seen). But there is no doubt that the result, if confirmed, will be taken as a heavy blow by the Georgian authorities and - if it results in Ukrainian recognition of the breakaway statelets of Abkhazia and South Ossetia - could have profound and destabilising effects across the region.

But one of the questions that now needs to be asked is to what extent Mikheil Saakashvili has contributed to what looks like Tymoshenko's defeat?

Ukraine managed to do what Georgia has not achieved: have a competitive election where both sides have had their chance to make their case to the public. But the debate in the last few weeks in Ukraine has been far from a high-minded discussion of policy. Rather it has been a down and dirty round of allegations and counter-allegations. The BBC describe it as "a bitter mud slinging campaign".

And a fair bit of that mud has been flung by Yanukovytch's supporters at Tymoshenko over the activity of Georgian "observers" of the first round of polling. These men were in the country seemingly as a result of a deal between Saakashvili and Tymoshenko and were easily portrayed by the party of the regions as thugs sent to intimidate Russian-speaking voters in the east of Ukraine.

To be fair, there was not much evidence of any intimidation: most international organisations gave Ukraine's first round of votring a pretty clean bill of health. But in a close fought contest the propaganda value of the Georgians to Yanukovytch has surely outweighed any possible advantage Tymoshenko could have hoped for from having a few hundred supportive "observers" in Donetsk.

Wiser heads would surely have recognised that such heavy handed tactics were certain to backfire. Saakashvili will now have to eat a lot of humble pie if he wants to repair Georgia's reputation in Ukraine.