Claims of a split between Irakli Alasania and Levan Gachechiladze "government lies"

March 10, 2010 by georgiamedia

The media spokesperson for Irakli Alasania's Our Georgia Free Democrats has dismissed claims that former presidential candidate Levan Gachechiladze had fallen out with Alasania as "not true" and part of a "government campaign" to divide and discredit the opposition.

Victor Dolidze said that the Alasania's three-party Alliance for Georgia was still keen to forge opposition unity: "The Alliance has not yet ended the process of negotiations. We are ready for talks with any political party in order to agree on a joint candidate [for mayor of Tbilisi]. All parties have their candidates, but the important thing is a rating. Today Irakli Alasania has the highest rating."

Alasania and Gachechiladze are meeting today after speculation that the former presidential candidate to throw his hat into the ring as a potential "unity" candidate.

Stalin's legacy in Georgia

March 9, 2010 by georgiamedia

In recent weeks much debate has focused on Russia's attempts to rehabilitate the memory of Joseph Stalin, who ruled as a dictator in the Soviet Union from 1929 to 1953.

Stalin's rule saw the deaths of a minimum of four million killed for political reasons and perhaps another six million, mainly in Ukraine, in were killed as a result of famine which itself was the consequence of Stalin's policy of forced collectivisation. On top of that he destroyed the Red Army's command at the moment of maximum danger of Nazi attack and then signed an agreement with Hitler which, as well as destoying the independence of Poland and the Baltic States, handed a massive strategic advantage to Germany.

But - although he left the Soviet Union so open to attack and he even had those who warned him of the imminence of a German blitzkrieg shot as "provocateurs" - Stalin is widely credited as the architect of victory of the Great Patriotic War. So this spring Moscow is to be decorated with posters of his likeness to mark the 65th anniversary of the crushing of Nazi power.

But Stalin was not a Russian at all - but a Georgian (with Ossetian roots). Born Ioseb Jughashvili (იოსებ ჯუღაშვილი) in Gori, where his statue still stands in the main town square (see picture).

The statute's prominence in one of Georgia's biggest towns is an illustration of the ambivalence in Georgian society about Stalin, his supposed achievements and his legacy to the country of his birth.

Fifty-four years ago today Tbilisi's citizens protested Khruschev's denuniciation of Stalin, taking his successor's attack on Stalin as an attack on Georgian greatness.

Not for the last time under Soviet rule, Georgian protests ended in tragedy as troops fired on the protestors, killing dozens or more.

Today there is a renewed debate on Stalin, with a particular focus on Stalin. One leading supporter of Mikheil Saakashvili has even appeared to endorse the idea of an illegal military-style attack on the statue - in October last year Levan Ramishvili, of the Liberty Institute stated:

 "The monument must be completely destroyed. Since the Georgian government is being careful, this should be a civil initiative. I would not rule out that somebody blows up the monument in the night."

Most supporters of removing the statue from the town square take a less extreme view, advocating that it should be moved to a museum. But as the film below here - another one from Transitions Online/Liberali - the view on the street of Stalin can be extremely polarised.

Statue of Limitations from Transitions Online on Vimeo.

Irakli Alasania comments on his campaign and Nino Bujanadze's trip to Moscow

March 8, 2010 by georgiamedia

Irakli Alsania, leader of the Alliance for Georgia and candidate for mayor of Tbilisi says that, although he has little money with which to mount an election campaign, he is picking up volunteers who are getting his message out door-to-door in Tbilisi.

Currently the "air war" - the electoral battle in the mass media, particularly the broadcasters - is dominated by incumbent mayor Gigi Ugulava while the opposition seem only to gain coverage for the interminable dispute over should be the single opposition candidate for the mayor's office.

But if the opposition can make inroads in the "ground war" - the hard slog of door-to-door talking and voter mobilisation they could begin to significantly dent Ugulava's undoubted current advantage.

Alasania is having to walk a fine line: pressing home his status as what most agree is the opposition's front-runner to squeeze other opposition candidates' votes while avoiding getting personally drawn into a slanging match with anyone other than the mayor - who has managed to stay above the fray precisely because of the opposition's internal divisions.

Now, says Alasania, in an interview with the Georgian Times, that has to change:

My political force, the Alliance, and myself as a candidate are going to be fully involved in campaigning, in making people understand that we are offering a change, a change for better. We are going to do a better job for them when we are the local government, in the Mayor’s office. For me these few months before the elections will be about campaigning and bringing change to the population.

...at this point we are financing the campaign with our own resources and we do not have much of an operation in the regions now for that reason. But I want to declare that we have a lot more volunteers working for us now. Door to door and town hall meetings will be important for our campaign, and these do not require much money. It requires just will and effort from the political side to be engaged in a direct dialogue with the population of Tbilisi.
 

Asked about fromer parliament speaker Nino Burjanadze's trip to Moscow, the former Georgian ambassador to the UN doubted it would have any lasting impact on Russian-Georgian relations:

I think the Georgian-Russian relationship has a future, but it will be a long time before we start political talks on the most sensitive issue for Georgia, which is the fulfillment by the Russian Federation of the agreement of August 12 2008 which requires them to leave Georgian territory. I do believe that political talks can lead naturally to the fulfillment of this agreement, but first and foremost I think we have at this point to concentrate all our efforts on containing Russia, not soliciting more aggressive behaviour from it, and start building our relationship with the Abkhazian and Ossetian population step by step. At this point I do not see any breakthrough possible through talks between the opposition and the Government of the Russian Federation. When we are in government after wining the elections, then of course we will start cementing our foreign policy priorities towards Russia as well.
 

Will Zurab Noghaideli now run for mayor?

March 8, 2010 by georgiamedia

The three parties that had backed a plan for primary to settle the question of who would run for mayor of Tbilisi on behalf of the opposition - the Conservatives, the People's Party and the Movement for a Fair Georgia - have announced that they are to use opinion polling as the basis on which to chose their candidate: but they will only poll on those parties and names who agree to their proposal.

A system of primaries will still be used - to pick individuals to run for the council (sakrebulo) in Tbilisi and also in the Georgian regions.

Koba Davitashvili, leader of the People's Party, but the blame for failing to agree a joint candidate for mayor amongst the opposition on the shoulders of Irakli Alasania and the Alliance for Georgia. He also added that the way was now open for Zurab Noghaideli and his Movement for a Fair Georgia to stand a candidate: leaving the possibility that Noghaideli, who has become a figure of enormous controversy in Georgia after his party signed an up to an alliance with Vladimir Putin's United Russia, might test his own popularity in the poll.

The Alliance for Georgia has objected to both an alliance with Noghaideli - the grouping came close to a permanent fracture after Alasania indicated he was at least prepared to talk to the former prime minister, a decision later reversed - and also to the delay that is proposed for the poll.

Today's announcement was that the result of the poll would be announced on 9 April - still over a month away. The Alliance believes that this delay - whilst good for the minor parties that are part of the grouping becaking the idea, as they will be lavished with media coverage by the regime's television statiopns, especially if they attack Irakli Alasania - will give the incumbent mayor Gigi Ugulava yet another advantage.

Ugulava has been actively running an undeclared re-election campaign - focusing on the issues such as jobs, education, crime and health that matter most to the voters - while the opposition has spent almost all its time arguing about how it should select its candidate.

Nor is it clear on what basis the poll will be taken. If it is a self-selecting ballot, or worse still, an internet poll, its scientific value will be zero and it will be open to manipulation on the grand scale. Unfortunately such "polls" are regularly reported in the Georgian media as though they were of value as opposed to just an interesting diversion. The messages of the cartoon shown here from PhD Comics is yet to break through.

Central bank plans on a doubling of inflation rate

March 8, 2010 by georgiamedia

The value of the Georgian Lari could be at risk as the Georgian central bank has announced that it expects inflation this year, next year and the year after to be up to double the 2009 rate of 3%.

The National Bank of Georgia has announced its inflation rate target for 2010 - 2012 is 5 - 6%, pointing to a cummulative inflation of around 19% over the three year period.

The Georgian Lari has been under pressure on the foreign exchanges for much of the last year, though the crisis in the Greek economy has eased fears of a substantial devaluation, at least in the short term, against the Euro (see graph).

But with the country running a substantial current account deficit it is heavily dependent on capital inflows to maintain economic stability. Potential for increased exports of manufactured goods is limited in even the medium term without external capital so without foreign investment a vicious circle of inflation, devaluation and a widening trade deficit could take hold. The Georgian government says it is confident it can attract the necessary funding, and ministers with an economic brief are spending substantial amounts of their time in the Middle East in particular.

Inflation also adds to social pressures at home. With many Georgians depedent on state handouts - which are unlikley to increase given the government's already high levels of borrowing - and force down living standards even for those in jobs.